The world is on track to warm by 3,1C this century without tougher climate commitments from governments around the world, a new UN report has found, cited by Euronews.
That's more than twice the 1,5C limit of the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep the world on a climate-safe timeline.
Countries' current 2030 commitments are not being met, the latest United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) emissions gap report finds. Even if they are met, the temperature rise will be limited to only 2,6 to 2,8C.
"The climate crisis is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1,5C target will soon be dead and in intensive care. I appeal to every nation: "No more hot air please!". Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan to scale up action now, lay the groundwork for stronger national plans and higher national contributions, and then do your best to get to 1,5C.” , said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.
Is the 1,5C target still possible?
The difference in emissions is huge. But it can still be successfully overcome.
Under the terms of the Paris Agreement, countries must submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years showing how they will limit national emissions to keep global warming below the 1,5C limit.
The next round of NDCs is due in February – although many countries, including the US and the UK, have indicated that their new NDCs will be announced at COP29 or shortly thereafter.
UNEP estimates that nations must collectively cut 42% of their annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035, or the ability to meet the 1,5C target will disappear within a few years.
The main goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold the increase in the average global temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to work towards limiting the temperature increase to 1,5C above pre-industrial levels.
To stay within the 2C cap, UNEP says emissions must fall by 28% by 2030 and by 37% from 2019 levels by 2035 - the new milestone year to be included in next round of NDC.
“Even if the world exceeds 1,5C – and the chances of that happening are increasing every day – we must continue to strive for a sustainable and prosperous net-zero world. "Every degree saved matters in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damage avoided, biodiversity preserved and the ability to rapidly reduce any temperature overshoot," adds Andersen.
How can the world stay below 1,5C?
By reducing 31 gigatons of CO2 equivalent emissions in 2030 (roughly half of all global emissions in 2023) and 41 gigatons in 2035, it is technically possible to meet the 1,5C target.
Renewable energy plays a big role in this. The UNEP report found that increased deployment of solar and wind energy technologies could provide 27% of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38% in 2035.
Meanwhile, forest protection could account for about 20% of the potential in both years.
UNEP also highlights vital opportunities to increase energy efficiency and shift to cleaner fuels in the buildings, transport and industry sectors.
But achieving even some of these potential emissions cuts will require unprecedented international mobilization. According to the analysis, "countries must act as one government" to pursue their climate goals. And the G20 members, responsible for about 80 percent of all emissions, must do the heavy lifting.
“The emissions gap report is clear: we are playing with fire. We have no more time to play. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap and the funding gap. Starting at COP29," said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
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