Ahead of the European Parliament elections in 2019, Europe was rocked by massive climate marches. As the 2024 elections approach, the streets are empty, it says Euractiv.
In the spring of 2019, at the peak of a series of climate marches, 70 people gathered in Brussels to loudly demand greater climate action.
The mobilization paid off: the ensuing electoral "green wave" unleashed five years of ambitious climate legislation.
Five years later, Europe is preparing to vote again, but this time the climate marches are small and scattered. Neither record global temperatures nor threats to the Green Deal are enough to motivate activists to return to the streets en masse.
Greta and Gaza
"Had there not been a genocide in Gaza, there would be a reasonable chance of a new cycle of climate activism," said Dr Anneleen Kennis, lecturer in political ecology and environmental justice at Brunel University in London.
Swedish activist Greta Thunberg's focus on the plight of Palestine exemplifies the dilemma activists face: Should they ignore massive human injustice or risk diverting attention from the climate, just as the issue slips off the political agenda?
The issue continues to divide the climate movement. Dr. Kennis thinks that
"it would be almost cynical to organize huge climate demonstrations given the desperate situation in Gaza - where the main focus of the movement must now be."
Fragmentation and the far-right threat
“The mainstream climate movement has largely presented itself as outside of politics. But in today's polarized and volatile world, you can no longer stay out of politics," says Dr Kennis.
Focusing on a single issue like climate can mobilize large numbers of people to take to the streets. But as the climate movement grapples with broader issues such as security concerns and the rise of the far right, it may be harder to maintain just one simple unifying message.
The children grew up
Young people were the inspiration for the wider climate marches that hit Europe in 2019, especially children skipping school to protest. This youth movement is much less visible today.
“I don't think the movement exists anymore. At least not like it was a few years ago,” says Dr. Kennis.
Although many young leaders remain active in climate action, some even running for a seat in the European Parliament, wider youth engagement has declined. While the interests and priorities of young people invariably change as they grow up, restrictions against COVID and parental pressure are other reasons why the youth movement has lost steam.
Catching the next wave
Dr Yost de Moor, assistant professor at Science Po in France, claims that
"sooner or later the number of participants in such movements decreases anyway. This probably has more to do with a loss of momentum and excitement than a reduction in climate concerns.”
He also believes that the COVID pandemic may have ushered in a premature end to the initial cycle.
According to Kim Le Quang, co-founder of the Climate Rise movement in Brussels, the mass of such movements is rhythmic, like waves.
"There is an emotional side and at some point the emotion can go away and people move on to something else," he explained.
Scientists believe such waves are triggered during "windows of opportunity" - the 2019 movement was triggered by extreme weather in the summer of 2018 and a landmark IPCC report outlining the consequences of exceeding 1,5 degrees of warming . Most experts are confident that a new wave of climate protests will grow in the future.