Greenhouse gas emissions fell by an "unprecedented" 5,8 percent in France last year, President Emmanuel Macron announced, as quoted by Euronews. The official data of CITEPA (an information platform that provides information to the French Ministry of the Environment) is undoubtedly good news. If the country continues on this trajectory, it will be able to meet its national and internationally agreed decarbonisation targets.
"This is a historic achievement," announced French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, praising "the French way of excelling in the energy transition."
Environmental experts, however, were less enthusiastic about the much-hyped success.
“A little modesty would be welcome. It is important to analyze the causes before exchanging greetings," said Ann Bringo, director of programs at the Climate Action Network.
So what is actually behind the emissions fall between 2022 and 2023, and can France sustain it?
Why did French emissions fall so much last year?
“The sector that saw the biggest drop in greenhouse gas emissions last year was electricity generation. This is mostly because 2022 was a bad year for clean electricity in France due to major outages at the country's nuclear reactors. Practically half of the huge nuclear fleet is not functioning," says Bringo.
The resulting situation forced a 29 percent increase in domestic gas production in France as compensation, according to a report by think tank Ember. The restart of nuclear plants in 2023 made the new data look very good. According to Ember's latest report, last year France saw the largest increase in nuclear production in the world.
Nuclear power makes up 65 percent of France's energy mix in 2023, while wind and solar contribute another 14 percent. Environmentalists are wary of nuclear power because it produces dangerous radioactive waste that must be properly stored -- at the risk of unleashing deadly contamination.
However, there has been real progress in renewables. France had the second largest increase in wind power production in the EU last year, just behind Germany. The country also saw the largest growth in wind and solar power combined across the bloc, with a jump of 14 terawatt hours (TWh).
Which sectors in France saw the biggest drop in pollution last year?
A closer look at the sectors reveals a mixed picture where the exact factors are hard to pin down. For example, France's industrial emissions have fallen by almost 9%. But commentators such as Bringo attribute this mainly to the decline in economic activity last year, rather than the structural impact of decarbonisation policies.
There was a significant fall in greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector, which reached their lowest level since 1990. CITEPA notes several factors, including the continued influence of the government's call for energy sobriety and the rise in heat pump installations. As well as reduced demand for energy due to increased prices and higher temperatures.
For road transport – the main culprit of greenhouse gas emissions in France, CITEPA reported only a 3,4% drop. According to Bringo, there is an urgent need for more sustainable travel.
France's air traffic emissions also fell by 3,4% last year after short-haul flights were banned in May 2023, when a direct rail alternative exists.
Globally, aviation emissions increased by 16% last year compared to 2022 – but are still 15% lower than in 2019, before the pandemic began.
Is France on track to meet its decarbonisation targets?
Over the five years from 2018 to 2023, France's total emissions fell from around 440 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent to 370 million tonnes, a drop of around 17%. Last year's sharp decline of 5,8% is not without precedent. In 2020, due to COVID, emissions fell by 9% and the unusually mild winter of 2014 saw a 6,6% drop.
Because these are outliers, CITEPA says 2023 was an "unprecedented situation" as all major emitting sectors contributed to emissions reductions. There is one big caveat though – the carbon sinks were turned off. French forests have suffered significantly in recent years following repeated droughts, forest fires, tree diseases and increased timber harvesting. According to a net analysis over the past four years, France would exceed its carbon budget.
By 2030, the country aims to achieve a 50% (55% net) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels – under the European Green Deal. A reduction in emissions of 5,8% per year puts France in a good position, but only if this pace is maintained with similar reductions each year.
In short, the good news should not be taken out of context or seen as an excuse for France to rest on its laurels. But they offer some hope. As Macron himself announced:
"Let's not give up!".