What is the Paris Agreement and are the countries keeping their promises?

Global temperatures are rising and the devastating effects are being seen across Europe. After the hottest summer on record, 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, reports Euronews.

The World Meteorological Organization said there was an 80% chance that the average annual global temperature would temporarily exceed 1,5C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.

The landmark international climate treaty – the Paris Agreement – ​​includes a commitment to try to prevent temperatures from rising more than 1,5C above pre-industrial levels. But the UN recently warned that the world is not doing enough to keep warming below levels that would prevent catastrophic consequences.

What is the Paris Agreement?

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted at COP21 by 194 countries (193 countries plus the EU) on 12 December 2015. The Paris Agreement then entered into force on 4 November 2016.

The most important commitment of the parties to the treaty is to try to prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 1,5C and to keep them "well below" 2C above pre-industrial times. This target was chosen because evidence suggests that breaching this limit will unleash severe climate impacts, including floods, heat waves and severe drought.

The Paris Agreement also includes other commitments from the countries that have adopted it, including providing funding for poorer countries to transition their energy systems and adapt to the effects of climate change. Signatories must also aim to reduce their emissions to zero between 2050 and 2100.

The Paris Agreement is an important treaty on climate change because for the first time all nations have come together to address the crisis and adapt to its effects.

What did the countries do after the Paris Agreement?

As climate science develops and green technologies improve, each country's goals clearly need to be updated. That's why the Paris Agreement works on a five-year cycle that drives increasingly ambitious climate action.

Countries have been submitting their national climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), since 2020. They outline what they will do to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. Each cycle is expected to show a higher degree of ambition than the previous one.

Each year, countries meet at international climate talks known as the Conference of the Parties, or COP. It was at the 21st COP in Paris that the details of the Paris Agreement were clarified. These annual conferences now serve as a key opportunity for signatories to advance their efforts to achieve the goals of the agreement.

But how are countries doing in sticking to the 1,5C limit? The short answer is "not very well." Last month, the UN warned that current climate policies would lead to a likely warming of 3,1C by 2100. The latest stocktake of countries' NDCs found that national policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fall well short of what is needed to limit catastrophic warming.

The alarming news came on the same day that the World Meteorological Organization announced that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions had jumped to record high levels in 2023.

What does this mean for COP29?

This year's COP29 climate talks are due to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan this November. The parties are expected to achieve results on several key priorities of these negotiations. This includes reaching agreement on a new climate finance target required under the terms of the Paris Agreement, known as the New Collective Quantitative Target (NCQG), as well as clearer guidelines for trading international carbon credits.

Many countries may also use COP29 as an opportunity to announce their current NDCs, which expire in February 2025.

Next year's COP in Brazil will mark 10 years since the signing of the Paris Agreement and five years until the 2030 goal of halving global emissions. This is expected to be a more pivotal moment for climate action.

However, success at COP29 could also mean better political conditions to achieve more next year. Ensuring that the core principles are taken into account would mean that countries start COP30 in Belem with a fully operational Paris Agreement.