Where will extreme weather have the greatest impact?

Extreme weather will intensify rapidly over the next 20 years, says a new study cited by Euronews. Scientists at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway say nearly three-quarters of the world's population will see dramatic changes in weather patterns unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced quickly.

The new study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, shows how global warming can combine with normal weather changes to produce decadal periods of rapid and noticeable changes in precipitation and temperatures.

Natural phenomena such as El Niño can change weather conditions leading to peaks in rainfall and temperature. As the world gets warmer and wetter, however, extreme events are starting to move beyond what society and ecosystems can handle.

Where will extreme climate change have the greatest impact?

Very few studies have so far examined the impact of extreme weather on different countries. The researchers used four different climate simulations to understand how peaks in rainfall and temperatures might change over the next two decades.

"We focus on regional changes because of their increased importance to human and ecosystem experience compared to the global average, and we also identify regions that are expected to experience significant changes in levels of one or more extreme event indices over the next decades," says Dr Carly Iles, lead author of the study at CICERO.

In a scenario where not enough is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, regions such as the Mediterranean, Northwest and South America, and East Asia can expect "sustained, unprecedented rates of change for two or more decades."

Many of the regions expected to experience the fastest changes include low-income countries that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather.

Is it too late to stop the extreme changes?

Current climate simulations show that about 70 percent of the world's population – 5,6 billion people – should expect changes in temperatures and precipitation in a future high-emissions scenario.

Even with strong mitigation efforts in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, 20 percent of the world's population, or about 1,5 billion people, will still be affected. The most dramatic changes in this scenario will be limited to the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. This has important implications for climate adaptation efforts around the world.

"At best, we estimate that the rapid changes will affect 1,5 billion people. The only way to deal with this is to prepare for a situation with a much higher probability of unprecedented extreme events already in the next one to two decades," says Dr. Björn H. Samset of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

Researchers also warn of the potentially deadly consequences of these climate change impacts, from heat waves to floods.