By 2033, production from renewable energy sources (RES) is expected to exceed 50% of the projected gross electricity consumption in the country. This is stated in the Plan for the Development of the Electricity Transmission Network of Bulgaria for the period 2024-2033 of the "Electricity System Operator" (ESO).
ESO specifies that new nuclear capacities are foreseen in Bulgaria's Strategy Project, which are outside the scope of their plan.
Forecast
The electricity system operator has made a forecast for the development of gross electricity consumption in the country, which is in line with the forecasts of the European Commission until 2050, the Agency for Sustainable Energy Development, the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, as well as the Ministry of Finance (in terms of GDP ).
The forecast also takes into account the experience of ESO from recent years, showing that electricity consumption varies within narrow limits, and the maximum forecasts from all years are far from the realization and its design trend. Based on this, two main scenarios for the development of electricity consumption have been adopted: maximum and minimum.
To them, the scenario of the Strategy for Sustainable Energy Development (SESDP) has been added. In accordance with the European goals for decarbonization in perspective until 2050, the draft strategy envisages a smooth growth of electricity consumption, as a result of the planned electrification in the heating, transport and industry sectors, including production of green hydrogen. In 2033, gross electricity consumption is expected to reach 41 GWh.
The maximum scenario for the gross electricity consumption without pumps coincides with the trend of the reference one for the final electricity consumption in the country of the European Commission for the period 2015 - 2025 and almost coincides with the scenario of PSUPER. It foresees an increase in electricity consumption at a moderate pace. In the development of this scenario, a delay in the implementation of various innovative measures to increase energy efficiency is expected. By 2033, gross consumption is expected to reach 41 GWh.
In the minimum scenario, it is envisaged to maintain the level of electricity consumption (without pumps) for the entire period, due to more intensive application of energy efficiency measures. In 2033, gross electricity consumption is expected to reach 37 GWh.