10.10.2024

Many of Earth's "vital indicators" have reached record extremes

Many of Earth's "vital indicators" have reached record extremes, indicating that "humanity's future hangs in the balance." This is the conclusion of a group of the world's most senior climate experts, reports Guardian.

More and more scientists are considering the possibility of societal collapse, says a new report that assesses 35 vital indicators in 2023 and finds that 25 are worse than ever, including carbon dioxide levels and global population size. This indicates a "critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis," the analysis said.

The temperature of the Earth's surface and oceans has reached an all-time high, driven by record burning of fossil fuels. The human population is increasing by approximately 200 people per day, and the number of cattle and sheep by 000 per day, all of which is leading to record greenhouse gas emissions.

The scientists identified 28 feedback loops, including increasing emissions from melting permafrost, which could help trigger multiple tipping points, such as the collapse of the massive Greenland ice cap.

Global warming is leading to increasingly deadly extreme weather events around the world, including hurricanes in the US and 50C heatwaves in India, with billions of people exposed to extreme heat.

The scientists say their goal is "to provide clear, evidence-based insights that inspire informed and courageous responses from citizens to researchers and world leaders."

Decisive action is needed

Decisive, swift action is imperative to limit human suffering, they said, including reducing fossil fuel burning and methane emissions, reducing overconsumption and waste by the wealthy and encouraging a shift to plant-based foods.

“We are already in the midst of sudden climate upheavals that threaten life on Earth like nothing humans have ever seen. Ecological overshoot—taking more than Earth can safely give—has pushed the planet toward climates more threatening than anything even our prehistoric relatives have witnessed. Climate change has already caused millions of people to migrate, with the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions. This is likely to lead to greater geopolitical instability, possibly even a partial societal collapse," said Oregon State University (OSU) Professor William Ripple, who led the study.

The analysis, published in the journal Bioscience, claims that concentrations of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere are at record levels. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, 80 times more potent than CO2, and is emitted from fossil fuel operations, landfills, cattle and rice fields.

"The growth of methane emissions is accelerating, which is extremely troubling," said Dr. Christopher Wolf, a former OSU supervisor who was also part of the team that conducted the study.

Although wind and solar are expected to grow by 15% in 2023, coal, oil and gas still dominate, according to the researchers. They said there was "fierce opposition from those who benefit financially from the current fossil fuel-based system".

A bright symptom

The researchers also argue that global warming is part of a wider crisis that includes pollution, destruction of nature and growing economic inequality.

“Climate change is a stark symptom of a deeper systemic problem: ecological overshoot that cannot continue indefinitely. As the risk of Earth's climate system tipping over into a catastrophic state grows, more and more scientists are beginning to explore the possibility of societal collapse. Even in the absence of global collapse, climate change could cause many millions of additional deaths by 2050. We need bold, transformative change,” the report said.

Among the policies that scientists recommend for rapid adoption are gradually reducing the human population by empowering the education and rights of girls and women; protecting, restoring or restoring ecosystems; integrating climate change education into global curricula to raise awareness and action.