Could better warnings have saved lives in Valencia?

Flash floods that hit southern and eastern Spain have killed at least 217 people. Emergency services continue to search for many others who are still missing, reports Euronews.

Due to the huge death toll, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez declared it the worst natural disaster in Spain's history.

Questions are being asked about how this could happen in a wealthy European country where public safety standards are generally high.

Anger is growing over Valencia's emergency response

Those affected by the floods were understandably angered by the events leading up to the disaster. They surrounded King Felipe VI on Sunday in the Valencian town of Paiporta, pelting him with mud. Next to the monarch was Valencia regional leader Carlos Masson, who was quickly evacuated when the crowd turned hostile.

Much of the blame for the region's lack of preparation, as well as the untimely response to the disaster, was placed on politicians from the People's Party. Much of the anger was directed at emergency warnings to citizens who came too late to evacuate.

In 2023 the center-right regional government disbanded the regional emergency unit set up by the previous administration. Critics say a framework like this could help coordinate the response to deadly floods.

Spain's interior ministry blamed the regional government, saying it was responsible for sending out warnings of possible floods and other natural disasters. In his defense, Masson said his government followed standard protocol dictated by Spain's central government.

The national leader of the People's Party, Alberto Nunes Feijoo, also questioned the information sent by the state weather agency AEMET.

“No one can make decisions based on information that may be accurate, inaccurate, or could be improved. Decisions are made based on the information provided at any given time,” he said.

Feihoo also complained that the prime minister's administration had not coordinated with the regional government.

Although an effective early warning would not have spared homes, vehicles and businesses in Valencia, it could have saved some of the more than 200 lives lost in this severe weather event.

Were people warned about the deadly floods in Valencia?

AEMET warned authorities and the public two days before the crash that there was a 70% chance of heavy rain. At 7:30 a.m. on the day of the disaster, the agency issued a red alert for severe weather.

Regional authorities did not send text messages warning residents to stay home shortly after 20 p.m. At that time, many were riding in their cars, in the market or on the streets. Some were already blocked by the rising waters.

Around 18:00, the Magro river burst its banks, sending a deluge of water and mud into the streets of the city of Alcudia. Mayor Andreu Salom told Spanish broadcaster RTVE that he and his fellow citizens had received no warning of the impending tragedy.

"I was on my way to check the river level myself at that point because I had no information," he said.

Europe must be better prepared for climate threats

Ironically, on the same day that the people of Valencia faced the deadly consequences of climate change, the European Commission presented a report on increasing civil and defense preparedness.

In her presentation, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the tragedy as "the dramatic reality of climate change". She also stressed that Europe must be prepared to deal with it.

Von der Leyen said that adequately preparing for major threats, including climate change, requires a "whole of government approach" that uses local, regional, national and EU resources. One of the challenges is to ensure that an effective public warning system is in place.

Warning systems are mandatory by the EU and every member state must have one under a 2018 directive. However, creating an effective, timely warning system is much more difficult than simply ensuring that the text is sent in time to alert people to what is happening.

The devastating floods in Spain should serve as a wake-up call for Europe to assess how well these warnings actually work and what needs to be done to improve them. In von der Leyen's words, "preparedness must become part of the basic logic of all our actions."

What does an effective warning system look like?

It is clear that for many in Valencia the warning came too late and gave very little information on what to expect. For a warning system to be successful, information must be sent with enough time for people to react. It also needs to be provided in a way that is useful to the recipient and that recipient needs to understand it properly and then know the right decision to make based on the risk.

"If any component of this fails, then people could be in danger and potentially lose their lives," said Lars Lovinsky, an expert at Weather & Radar.

He adds that even with a perfect forecast and warning, and advance warnings from AEMET there were, people need to be aware of the risk where they are.

"If the information they're being given isn't understood because the recipients don't have the reference or the context, then that warning doesn't have much value," Lovinsky points out.

Trust is also important. People need to trust the information they are being sent, and that depends on the agency providing it – it should already have a good track record of accurate and helpful warnings.

Lovinsky says this psychological component cannot be ignored and is the subject of ongoing research.

What went wrong in Valencia?

“What seems to have failed to a significant degree is the turnaround time. "Just providing rainfall totals (e.g. 400 mm in 12 hours) without describing the associated impacts and possible measures to protect life and property is of little use unless one is experienced in meteorology," says Lovinsky, pointing out, that the alert came from the regional civil protection agency after some villages in the southwestern part of the region had already been flooded. Misunderstanding the intensity of the event and underestimating the risk were also problems.

But predicting the exact impact is a bit easier with all-weather risks like high winds, thunderstorms or snow. Heavy rain has both a weather-driven aspect and a hydrology-driven aspect—or what happens to the rain after it hits the ground.

River catchments, flat or hilly terrain, soil type, whether an area is built up or not - all these factors can affect how bad a flood will be.

"An effective warning system should address all of the above issues and should be flexible enough to allow for constant adjustments and improvements," Lovinsky concludes.