Spain is moving to a desert climate, says a new study on the link between global warming and more frequent droughts, cited by Euronews. The Mediterranean country is clearly on the front line of climate change in Europe.
Scientists at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) in Barcelona predict that by 2050 rainfall will decrease by up to 20 percent compared to current levels. This would tilt Spain from a temperate Mediterranean climate to a degree or even desert, according to the Köppen system, which divides the world into five different climate zones based on plant growth.
"The warming process resulting from climate change is very pronounced in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, representing a real hotspot," the researchers wrote.
Presented at the European Meteorological Society (EMS) International Meteorological Congress in Barcelona earlier this month, their findings reveal a climate that is in a phase of major change.
How much warmer it has become in Spain - facts
Between 1971 and 2022, temperatures in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands (including the popular holiday destination Majorca) rose by 3,27°C.
This is well above the global average temperature rise of 1,19°C and the Mediterranean average of 1,58°C, according to UPC experts.
Summer days – when the maximum daily temperature is 25°C or more – rose from 82,4 in 1971 to 117,9 in 2022: a 43 percent increase.
Meanwhile, tropical nights – where the mercury does not drop below 25°C – increased from 1,73 to 14,12.
The rise in tropical nights is concentrated in the Southern Plateau, the Guadalquivir and Ebro river valleys, and the Mediterranean coast, the researchers noted.
In terms of heat waves, the frequency of these hot spells has increased from less than one per year on average between 1971-1980 to almost two in the decade 2013-2022. Heat waves have also become longer, on average from three to nine days.
Is climate change increasing drought and extreme rainfall in Spain?
The study shows a "strong relationship" between rising temperatures and falling rainfall in Spain over the past 50 years.
Between 1971 and 2022, rainfall decreased at a rate of 0,93 mm per year, leading the country to experience greater droughts that affect citizens and workers.
At the same time, extreme rainfall increased across most of Spain. Torrential rainfall (over 60 mm/day) increased in Andalucia, Castilla La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Southern Catalonia, Balearic Islands, Aragon, Navarre, Basque Country and Asturias.
These rains are particularly concentrated along the Mediterranean coast, according to the study. Extreme rainfall can cause flooding and does not compensate for droughts.
"Virtually over the entire territory, the relationship between progressive warming and the trend of decreasing precipitation is very significant," the authors conclude.
How hot and dry could Spain get in the future?
If greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, the average daily temperature in Spain is expected to reach 15,84°C in 2050. This is 1,43°C higher than the average temperatures of the last 10 years.
By this point by mid-century, summer days will increase by 22,7 and tropical nights by 7,2 on average across the country compared to the 2013-2022 period.
Droughts will also continue to get longer, leading to a "fundamental change" in Spain's climate as it moves from a hot summer Mediterranean climate to a cold semi-arid climate in some parts, according to the Köppen system.
The cold climate will be the dominant climate in mainland Spain by 2050 (about 40 percent), gradually displacing the typical Mediterranean climate, the scientists add.