Forecasts for the Americas are for an extremely active hurricane season this year. Climatologists from Colorado State University (CSU) in the US predict 11 hurricanes in 2024. The reasons for the stormy winds are the warmer Atlantic and the transition to La Niña climate pattern conditions, reports Euronews.
The forecast is the most hurricanes ever predicted by the agency since it began operating in 1995.
Still, scientists stress there is a high degree of uncertainty about how the season will play out, but urge residents along the US coast and in the Caribbean to prepare.
How will La Niña increase the likelihood of hurricanes?
There are two key factors behind the forecast for a particularly busy Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. The first is record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropics and eastern subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean. Since it's warm ocean water that fuels hurricanes, it's clear that we're in for a pretty active season. A warm Atlantic also leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere – other key conditions for hurricanes to form.
In addition, the final phase of El Niño, the natural seasonal climate phenomenon associated with warming of the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, is currently being observed. However, El Niño alone does not explain the record high temperatures of the world's oceans - especially in the Atlantic Ocean.
Heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit behind this warming,” WCO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said recently.
The second factor is that El Niño's follow-up La Niña conditions are expected to dominate during the peak Atlantic hurricane season from August to October. La Niña tends to reduce westerly winds in the upper Caribbean. This leads to a change in wind speed, which in turn favors the formation of a hurricane.
Given the combined signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and possibly a developing La Niña, the forecast team is fairly confident that the hurricane season will be extremely busy.
23 major storms are predicted this year
In total, the CSU Tropical Weather and Climate Team predicts 23 major storms will make landfall during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers predict 11 will become hurricanes and five will reach major hurricane strength - with sustained winds of 180 km/h or more.
Looking back at decades of historical hurricane records, experts have noticed some similarities with the 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020 seasons.
So far, the highest forecast number of hurricanes in April was nine. At this time last year, six hurricanes were forecast. In the end, there were seven, the most destructive of which was Hurricane Idalia, which hit Florida's Big Bend region in August 2023, killing eight people and causing $3,6 billion in damage.
Who is most at risk?
As usual, coastal residents are advised to take appropriate precautions. The report calculates the likelihood of major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) reaching certain areas.
There is a 62 percent chance that a major hurricane will hit the entire U.S. coast this year. There is a 34 percent chance that the storm will sweep the East Coast of the United States, including the Florida peninsula. For the Caribbean, the chance of major hurricanes is 66 percent.
Significant weather changes can occur between April and the peak season. Additional forecast updates are expected on June 11, July 9 and August 6.