29.05.2024

Forecasters warn: Europe is expecting the hottest summer ever

Europe is bracing for its first spell of hot weather this summer, with Germany and the Scandinavian countries expecting unusually high temperatures as early as next week. Forecasts indicate that Europe is in for another unusually hot summer – possibly even the hottest on record, it reports Euronews.

The risk of heat waves at the Paris Olympics has long worried organizers about the safety of athletes. Spain is bracing for another hot summer, releasing a new map to help with more accurate heatwave forecasts. Cities across the continent are updating their plans with adaptations for extreme heat.

Will this summer be unusually hot in Europe?

When it comes to heat waves or individual extreme weather conditions, forecasters have no way of making accurate predictions. But the past tense can provide some clues.

"It's extremely difficult to accurately predict what the weather will be like months ahead, let alone weeks and sometimes days," said Tamzin Green, a meteorologist at forecasting service Weather & Radar.

This is because the weather across Europe is extremely variable with a myriad of different influencing factors. However, meteorologists can look at weather patterns and general trend data – including average monthly temperatures.

"Right now, June, July and August seem to be trending above average in terms of temperature," Green points out.

The weather on the continent varies too much, making it difficult to predict where a "hot summer" might occur. Green says there are likely to be hotspots in southern and eastern Europe. Western Europe can expect average rainfall in June. Forecasts are for above average rainfall for southern Europe in July and drier conditions in the east. August is likely to be drier for much of the continent.

However, Green reminds that these are only averages. This means that there can be large fluctuations or even extremes in these conditions.

What affects the weather in Europe?

Many different factors influence Europe's variable weather. The world is currently in a transition phase between El Niño and La Niña climate events, which is "crucial" for determining global weather and temperature patterns. Europe is forecast to remain in this neutral phase until at least early summer, but the effects of El Niño are still lingering.

"Air and ocean temperatures are still astronomically high in recent months. Although El Niño mostly affects sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, it has global effects,” says Green.

She explains that, like a domino effect, the weather in one place can affect conditions on the other side of the planet. If there is increased rainfall somewhere in the world, it will be reduced elsewhere.

Europe is warming faster than the global average

However, there is one factor that plays a major role in the continent's increasingly warm summers, and that is climate change.

“One thing that is a massive, undeniable factor that cannot be ignored is that heat records are constantly being broken in Europe. The last ten years were the ten warmest on record, with most of the Earth's warming occurring in the last 40 years. And April is the 11th consecutive month with the hottest temperatures on record," says Green.

Europe has warmed at twice the global average since 1991, according to the latest figures from the World Meteorological Organization and the EU's Copernicus climate agency. Both agencies warn that the continent needs to do more to reduce its emissions and move away from fossil fuels.