Will there be heat waves in Europe in the autumn?

In recent days, Europe has faced another scorching heat wave for this year. This has caused many to wonder when the unbearably warm weather will end, reports Euronews.

Almost all of France is under warnings of high temperatures exceeding 30C across the country. The alert was issued on a date that evokes bad memories - on August 11, 2003, 15 people died due to extreme heat.

Italy has been engulfed in constant heat since mid-June. Parts of the country are forecast to see record highs of over 40C. At the beginning of the week, authorities declared an orange alert for a heat wave in 40 departments, and it remained in effect for only nine of them on Tuesday morning. City hospitals reported a 20 percent increase in people seeking emergency care for heat-related illnesses.

Since Friday, Spain has been battling what is likely to be the most intense heat wave of the summer. The national meteorological organization Aemets said temperatures could top 40C in areas of Andalusia as well as the north-east. High temperatures and dry weather also increase the risk of wildfires in many places.

Monday was the hottest day so far this year in the UK with temperatures of 34C recorded in the Cambridge area.

The extreme heat is forecast to pass in many places before the end of the week. However, this may not be the end of this year's high temperatures just yet. Here's what the experts are predicting.

Why is it so hot in Central and Western Europe?

Lars Lovinsky, meteorologist for Weather & Radar, says the combination of heat and humidity is making the weather really uncomfortable for many in Western Europe.

“It looks hotter when the humidity is high because of the amount of moisture in the air. Our bodies naturally regulate temperature by sweating. This sweat, which evaporates into the surrounding air, cools us down. When there is more moisture in the air, sweat does not evaporate as much, which means we feel hotter. That same humid heat is affecting large parts of France, the Benelux countries, Germany and other central European countries this week. What is remarkable is that the warm weather is also affecting the far north of Europe, beyond the Arctic Circle all the way to Svalbard. Temperatures there reached 20 degrees on Sunday - a record for the month of August," he explains.

When will this heat wave end?

Relief could be seen for some regions of Europe over the next few days as the heat wave begins to break. But the conditions will persist in the eastern and southern parts of the continent.

“The peak of the current very hot spell for Western Europe is mainly at the start of the week in Western Europe, with a gradual cooling expected from Wednesday. Meanwhile, eastern and particularly southeastern parts of Europe will see much warmer than average conditions this weekend. This is especially true for the Balkans," says Lovinski.

Why is Europe so hot right now?

"This time the hot weather was caused by a current of very warm air from North Africa and Spain that was pulled north in front of a low pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean. These bursts of hot air from the south are not uncommon in the summer. However, there is a tendency for these warm air masses to become even hotter due to climate change," Lovinsky explains.

Sea surface temperatures in Europe are also high, he adds, especially in the Mediterranean, where they are sometimes 4 to 6C warmer than normal for August.

Will the hot weather in Europe last until the end of August?

Although longer-term weather forecasts are sometimes uncertain, Lovinsky says we can draw some general trends rather than exact predictions. And overall, trends indicate that warmer than normal conditions are likely to continue, particularly in southern and southeastern Europe.

If the winds shift to the southern sector again, there may also be some new warm or very warm spells in central and western Europe. What can be said for sure is that the very warm water in the Mediterranean and around many western European coasts will remain a problem for the next few weeks as the sea can store a lot of heat. Water temperatures change much more slowly than land temperatures.

"What this really means is that all the heat stored in the sea will continue to support warmer and wetter weather unless there's a big change in the weather pattern sometime in the fall," Lovinsky says.

He warns that these warmer sea surface temperatures and more moisture in the atmosphere also mean more conditions for rain and thunderstorms.

"This is something we have already seen this summer in some parts of the continent and more thunderstorms, sometimes with heavy rain and flash flooding, are likely to affect parts of central Europe, particularly in the next few days," Lovinsky said.